[2012 Oscars] Predicting The Race For The Upcoming 84th Academy Awards

[B]EST ACTRESS?

1. Jessica Chastain, “Tree of Life”
2. Elizabeth Olsen, “Martha Marcy May Marlene”
3. Adepero Oduye, “Pariah”
4. Felicity Jones, “Like Crazy”
5. Emma Stone, “The Help”
6. Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

The Oscars love a pretty new face, especially when the attention for the actress helps raise the overall profile of her movie.

Last year there was Jennifer Lawrence with Winter’s Bone. The year before that, there was Carey Mulligan in An Education. Then think of Ellen Page in Juno or Amy Adams in Junebug.

In the pack, Elizabeth Olsen stars as a young woman desperate to regain her sense of self in Martha Marcy May Marlene and Felicity Jones, who in Like Crazy plays a young woman in love trying to overcome distance and the tug of time to hold on to an intimate connection.

Also in the equation is Adepero Oduye as a young woman struggling with coming out to her family in Pariah. Jessica Chastain also has a veritable buffet of films that could gain traction during award season with her roles in Take Shelter, The Help and The Tree of Life.

[B]EST PICTURE?

1. “The Artist”
2. “The Descendants”
3. “The Help”
4. “Midnight in Paris”
5. “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
6. “War Horse”
7. “Moneyball”
8. “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
9. “The Tree of Life”
10. “J. Edgar”
11. “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
12. “Hugo”
13. “Young Adult”
13. “Shame”
14. “The Ides of March”
15. “The Iron Lady”
16. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2”
17. “50/50.”

50/50 is one of those films that academy members don’t like to vote for, ‘cos it’s a comedy. But we also know they love movies featuring a potentially life-threatening illness. 50/50 combines both in a rule-breaking manner that pivots between gravity and hilarity with seamless ease. That’s a candidate up there.

We probably won’t have 10 nominees again. But eight seem likely. We’ve seen late-season sure-things crash and burn every year – Up in the Air, The Social Network – so we’re going to hold off.

We are probably going all in on War Horse and Extremely Loud. But the top four? Voters love them truly, madly, deeply.

[B]EST ACTOR?

1. George Clooney, “The Descendants”
2. Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
3. Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, “J. Edgar”
5. Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
6. Michael Fassbender, “Shame”
7. Ryan Gosling, “The Ides of March”
8. Woody Harrelson, “Rampart”
9. Paul Giamatti, “Win Win”
10. Michael Shannon, “Take Shelter”
11. Matt Damon, “We Bought a Zoo”
12. Daniel Craig, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
13. Jeremy Irvine, “War Horse”
14. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, “50/50”

Who is it gonna be? Would the age and subtlety of Clooney overcome the youth and showy DiCaprio and Dujardin? Or would Brad Pitt‘s very Brad Pitt-like Billy Beane in Moneyball prevail this time?

Yet, can we really turn a blind eye to the deep bench of indie standouts hoping for a spot in the lineup – can we?

[B]EST DIRECTOR?

1. Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
2. Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
3. Stephen Daldry, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
4. Steven Spielberg, “War Horse”
5. Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
6. David Fincher, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
7. Bennett Miller, “Moneyball”
8. Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
9. Tomas Alfredson, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
10. Clint Eastwood, “J. Edgar”
11. Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

Daldry has almost always been nominated, even for Billy Elliot. So is this year his year? People have cried during the War Horse trailer, perhaps, not the same people who will be voting for Fincher and Dragon Tattoo but still; and Malick?

Maybe voters don’t grasp everything going on in Tree but there is an innate understanding that some pretty deep thoughts are being beamed their way on a level that only a few filmmakers attempt.